BOSTON, (Dec. 11, 2025), NWEA, a K-12 assessment and education research organization, released predictions today about major challenges educators and schools may face in 2026, with insights and trends on research, student academic growth and continued post-covid recovery, and professional learning from their experts.
The engagement cliff: middle school and addressing the literacy crisis
In 2026, expect growing urgency around middle school literacy. The students who were in K–3 during the pandemic are now in middle school, and many still haven’t caught up – only 30% of eighth graders are reading proficiently, with no state showing gains since 2022. While there is a myth that students transition from learning to read to reading to learn after third grade, the reality is that many older students need ongoing reading support as they take on more complex texts. Years of testing pressure, fragmented time for reading instruction, and limited focus on adolescent literacy have left students underprepared for complex, content-rich texts. In 2026, expect more states and districts to invest in systemic literacy supports that extend beyond elementary school: embedding reading across subjects, rethinking instructional time, and rebuilding students’ stamina and confidence to tackle challenging material. The middle school reading crisis is as much about mindset as mechanics – and solving it will require both. ~ Julie Richardson, Principal Content Designer for Literacy
The Algebra access gap: who gets the chance to advance in math?
The conversation about Algebra 1 in 8th grade is expanding beyond understanding who’s ready to also who gets the chance. Only about three in five schools offer Algebra by 8th grade – and even where it’s available, Black and Latino students are still less likely to be placed, even when they show strong academic readiness. These missed opportunities have lasting ripple effects, closing doors to advanced math, STEM majors, and higher-paying careers. In 2026, expect to see growing momentum behind universal screening – a data-driven approach that identifies all students ready for advanced coursework, rather than relying on subjective recommendations. As more states adopt automatic enrollment policies, the focus will expand to ensuring more students are prepared to take Algebra early with supports such as tutoring, double-dose instruction, and targeted skill-building. And among prepared students, we must move from access to success, ensuring that students who take Algebra early also receive the support they need to thrive. The path to math equity involves both increasing the number of students who are ready for advanced math and ensuring that every student who’s ready, receives a fair opportunity to take it and succeed. ~ Dr. Daniel Long, Senior Research Scientist
Heat and learning: why school infrastructure is becoming an equity issue
As temperatures keep rising, 2026 will be the year more districts realize extreme heat isn’t just a facilities problem – it’s an achievement problem. Recent analyses of test-day temperatures show that even short bursts of heat can lower math performance, and that effect is stronger for students in high-poverty schools where cooling is less reliable. In the year ahead, expect more districts to treat temperature as an instructional condition – adjusting testing windows around heat waves, moving assessments to cooler rooms, and pushing for building upgrades that protect learning time. At the state and federal level, school infrastructure funding debates will increasingly include an academic lens: which students are most exposed to heat, and how is that showing up in their scores? The takeaway for 2026: as climate extremes become more common, school buildings themselves will play a bigger role in either widening or narrowing achievement gaps, especially in math. Districts that plan for heat, not just react to it, will give their students a measurable advantage. ~ Sofia Postell, Research Analyst
Rethinking the gender gap in learning
In 2026, expect the conversation about gender and learning to become more nuanced. Recent research challenges the idea of an early “boy crisis,” showing that boys and girls follow different – but equally important – academic trajectories. Boys tend to accelerate in math while girls maintain a steady lead in reading, and those early differences continue to shape patterns of engagement and confidence well into adolescence. The real issue isn’t that schools are poorly suited to one gender – it’s that both boys and girls face missed opportunities to build on their strengths. Boys often need more support to sustain early literacy gains, while girls need encouragement and access to keep pace in math and STEM. As educators and policymakers continue to confront persistent gender gaps, the most effective strategies will focus less on fixing students and more on rebalancing opportunities, ensuring both boys and girls can thrive across subjects, from the first day of kindergarten through high school graduation. ~ Dr. Megan Kuhfeld, Director of Growth Modeling and Analytics
Mind the data gap: why consistent, trusted data sources matter more than ever
In 2026, the education sector will face a scarcity in data issue. With federal education research programs and large-scale data collections at risk from budget cuts, schools and policymakers may lose some of the most reliable longitudinal information available to understand student progress. This erosion of this reliable infrastructure comes at a time when academic recovery remains uneven and the demand for clear, contextualized data has never been greater. In response, districts and states will increasingly look to independent, transparent sources for timely, nonpartisan insights they can trust. Expect to see new public-facing data tools emerge to fill this void – providing consistent, comparable information to guide policy and restore confidence in education decision-making. Reliable data isn’t just a technical necessity; it’s the foundation for building public trust, addressing persistent education challenges, and supporting educational equity. ~ Dr. Karyn Lewis, Vice President of Research and Policy Partnerships
Cell phone bans and the new attention economy
In 2026, the national debate over cell phones in schools will shift from discipline to attention. With at least 32 states now moving to restrict or ban student cell phone use, educators, parents, and researchers are recognizing that this isn’t just a classroom issue – it’s a cultural one. Early evidence suggests that limiting phones improves grades and focus, but real progress will depend on how schools and families model healthy digital habits. Expect the conversation to evolve beyond student behavior toward a broader reckoning with adult modeling and the fractured attention economy. As lawmakers, educators, and parents wrestle with the role of devices in learning and daily life, new research will focus on how tech boundaries – at home and at school – can restore focus, foster connection, and rebuild the deep attention students need to learn. The question isn’t just whether students can put down their phones – it’s whether the rest of us can, too. ~ Dr. Ayesha Hashim, Senior Research Scientist
The next phase of summer learning
In 2026, with ESSER funding gone, districts will face tough decisions about which recovery efforts to continue. Increasingly, research points to summer learning as one of the most practical and sustainable large-scale strategies for academic growth – especially in math. NWEA’s latest studies show that while summer programs produce modest gains in a single year, students who participate for multiple consecutive summers are likely to see cumulative benefits. The next challenge is to build on that foundation: increasing participation, extending program length, and securing reliable funding so that summer learning becomes a recurring opportunity rather than a temporary fix. Expect more states and districts to reimagine summer school as a permanent, research-backed part of the academic calendar – one that plays a central role in both math recovery and educational equity. ~ Dr. Emily Morton, Lead Research Scientist
Personalized professional learning will take center stage
In 2026, professional learning will shift decisively toward personalization – mirroring the differentiated, data-driven, student-centered instruction we expect teachers to deliver in their classrooms. Districts will move away from mandated, one-size-fits-all professional development workshops and embrace professional learning that is relevant, curriculum-based, and responsive to each teacher’s needs, experience, and instructional goals. Research continues to show that teachers benefit most from professional learning that is sustained, job-embedded, and creates coherence with curriculum and assessment. Expect to see continued growth in models that integrate personalized coaching, collaborative inquiry, and curriculum-aligned training, underpinned by technology that allows for targeted support and feedback loops. The most effective districts will “meet teachers where they are,” using teacher voice and data to shape learning experiences that build on existing strengths and address specific challenges. As a result, professional development will become less about seat time and more about impact, measured by how well it translates into improved instructional practice and stronger student outcomes. ~ Dr. Grant Atkins, Director of Efficacy Research
About NWEA
NWEA® (a division of HMH) is a mission-driven organization that supports students and educators in more than 146 countries through research, assessment solutions, and professional learning that support our diverse educational communities. Visit NWEA.org to learn more about how we’re partnering with educators to help all kids learn.
Contact: Simona Beattie, Communications Director, simona.beattie@nwea.org or 971.361.9526